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One of the biggest questions I've been asked is how to judge an exponential trend reversal.
This is indeed an important question, and one that is most difficult to answer clearly.
My answer is by no means black or white, and the judgment is not fixed.
We can refer to the Australian dollar/us dollar chart below for analysis
 
The leftmost k-line in the chart is December 15, 2011.
It was the start of a wave of upward trends.
We can see the exchange rate hitting higher highs and higher lows and breaking through key resistance 200-day lines.
Moreover, the Australian dollar was strong at the time, while the us dollar was the weakest.
The upward trend has been confirmed, and the exchange rate hit a phase high on February 29.
When the rally lasted nearly two and a half months, it rose nearly 1,000 points.
Next, when will the trend start?
We can look at the consolidation range of the exchange rate.
A lot of times, when the upward trend comes to an end, the exchange rate will oscillate in a high range or consolidate for a while.
After that, the upward trend will stagnate, and the exchange rate won't break much until the market signals further moves.
We can refer to the yellow rectangular area in the upper left.
We can now see that the exchange rate broke through the rectangular trading range, the downward trend began.
But we don't have the fabled crystal ball to help us predict the future, so no one knows that this is the end of the upswing, the beginning of the downswing.
So as a trader, what do we need to look at when the trend starts to turn?
We can use our method of judging the upward trend of the index to judge the beginning of the downward trend of the index, just in the opposite direction.
Lower lows and lower lows indicate a downward trend, and we can judge from this that the exchange rate is in a downward trend in time on the right of the chart, and the more the new highs and lows fall below the previous highs and lows, the more likely the decline will continue.
It should also be noted that in the downward trend, the us dollar is getting stronger while the Australian dollar is getting weaker.
Given that nothing guarantees a reversal, the longer the trend lasts, the more likely it is to come.
Here's how I can tell whether a trend reversal has occurred or is in the making
1.
If the index keeps making lower highs and lows and falling below previous support, the exchange rate is in a downward trend.
The longer the trend continues, the more likely it is to reverse.
(there is also no sure answer as to why the "longer" it takes, the more aggressive traders will decide the reversal and enter the market sooner than the more conservative ones.)
2.
The closer the currency moves to the 200-day moving average, the more likely a reversal is taking place (once it breaks the 200-day moving average and closes below it, a reversal is likely to have taken place).
3.
If the current pattern of weakness in the strong currency pair continues, the exchange rate may reverse.
Given that there is no clear method for judging short-term trend reversals, I suggest that the three points above have been lost to identify the continuation or kinetic energy of the trend and may eventually reverse it.

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